Current water snapshot

BoM Climate outlook (10 September 2020):

• October to December is likely to be wetter than average across Victoria (greater than 80% chance for most of the state, 65-80% chance for southern Victoria, East Gippsland and parts of the north-west).
• During October to December, days are likely to be warmer than average in southern Victoria and alpine regions (60-75% chance). In northern Victoria days are expected to be closer to average (50-60% chance). Night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average across Victoria (greater than 80% chance).

Next update is expected on 17 September 2020 (pm)

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

BoM Climate Driver Update (15 September 2020):

• The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña ALERT. However, further cooling of the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected. All surveyed international climate models indicate La Niña thresholds will be met from October until at least the end of the year, with most models maintaining these values into early 2021.
• If current atmospheric patterns and ocean cooling continue until the end of September, it is highly likely that La Niña conditions will be sustained until at least the end of the year.
• In the Indian Ocean, values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index have risen back into neutral territory. However, five of the six surveyed models indicate values may drop once again, and that negative IOD thresholds could be met in October.
• Both La Niña and negative IOD typically increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of Australia during spring.
• The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is positive, and is expected to weaken but remain weakly positive the remainder of September. A positive SAM during spring is typically associated with wetter and cooler than average conditions in parts of eastern Australia.

The next update is expected on 29 September 2020 (pm)

View the full update on the BOM Website