Current water snapshot

The BoM Climate outlook for March to May 2019 was issued on 13 June 2019:

The BOM climate outlook, issued 13 June 2019, suggests a drier than average three months is likely for most of Australia. Chances of a drier July to September are highest across southwest and southeast Australia where chances of a drier three months exceed 75%. July to September daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average. Nights are likely to be warmer across Australia' southeast. Climate influences include a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a weakening of El Niño-like patterns in the tropical Pacific, and the tendency for higher pressures over southern and eastern Australia keeping cold fronts further south than usual

The next update is expected on 27 June 2019

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook was issued on 11th June 2019.

The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere remain near El Niño thresholds, meaning the ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. Climate models suggest a gradual shift away from El Niño levels over the coming months. Indian Ocean temperature forecasts, on the other hand, show a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) through the southern winter, which is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia.

In the Indian Ocean, waters off Sumatra have cooled over the past fortnight, with the IOD index now exceeding positive thresholds for three weeks. All but one of the climate models suggest positive IOD values will persist through winter and into spring. To be considered a positive IOD event, positive thresholds need to be maintained for at least two months. A positive IOD often results in below average winter–spring rainfall over southern and central Australia.

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

The next update is expected on 25th June 2019.