Current water snapshot

The BoM Climate outlook for December to February was issued on 29 November 2018 , identifying:

• In Victoria, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months, i.e., no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than average season ahead. This pattern is fairly typical of a summer El Niño event.
• Summer days are very likely to be warmer than average, with probabilities exceeding 70% for almost the entire state. Summer nights are also very likely to be warmer than average.
• The current positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been a significant contributor to dry conditions in southeast Australia. However, models expect the positive IOD to follow its normal seasonal cycle, and decay by early summer.
• The next update is expected on 20 December 2018 (pm)

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

BoM issued the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook on 4 December 2018.

• The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, despite some indicators reaching El Niño levels. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the tropical Indian Ocean weakened in the past fortnight.
• Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have now exceeded El Niño thresholds for more than a month. However atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloud patterns, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have not reached El Niño levels. This indicates that the tropical ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other and remain uncoupled. This coupling is required to establish and sustain any ENSO event, and is what drives widespread Australian and global impacts.
• Recently, trade winds in the western Pacific have weakened in association with the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Some models suggest they may remain weakened for at least the next fortnight.
• International climate models predict sea surface temperatures to remain at or above El Niño levels in December and January. By February, all but one of the eight surveyed models remain above El Niño thresholds. El Niño effects in Australia over summer typically include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.
• The positive IOD event which began in early September has weakened, with the most recent value just below positive thresholds. It is likely that the positive IOD is nearing its end—consistent with model outlooks and the IOD's natural cycle. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.