Current water snapshot

The BoM Climate outlook for March to May 2019 was issued on 28 March 2019 , identifying:

The Outlook indicates April to June rainfall being above median is close to 50% across the country, meaning there is no indication that the coming three months will be significantly wetter or drier than average. However, the Bureau's climate model suggests there is a chance El Niño will develop in autumn. If El Niño does develop, it would increase the chances of drier conditions in the south and east. 

For April to June, days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country, particularly in northern and eastern Australia.

• The next update is expected on 16 April 2019

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

BoM issued the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook on 2 April 2019.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.
This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 has increased to approximately 70%, around triple the normal likelihood.

Most international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain at El Niño levels into winter. Sustained warmer than average ocean waters would increase the likelihood of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean, which would typically cause changes in Australian and global weather patterns. However, current outlooks have less skill for the period beyond May, and therefore predictions for the latter months should be viewed with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral for the remainder of the austral autumn, but indicate a positive IOD may form later in winter. A positive IOD typically means drier than average conditions for southern and central Australia during winter-spring.

View the full outlook on the BOM Website.

The next update is expected on 11 April 2019.