Latest Victorian outlook (as at 1 December 2019)

Watch the 2019 annual water outlook video or explore the interactive maps below.

Explore the maps below to find out what the 12-month outlook is for urban, rural and environmental water.

Metro and urban water

No restrictions expected under average climate scenario

Restrictions possible under dry or worst on record climate scenario

Restrictions in place or highly likely this summer

Regulated Systems

Unregulated Systems

Groundwater

Priority environmental watering projects

Barwon Water

Activation of standby sources, the Melbourne-to-Geelong pipeline and Anglesea Borefield, have helped to secure water supply systems for the next two years.

WORST ON RECORD
Apollo Bay: Stage 2 water restriction triggers could be reached by February 2020.

Central Highlands Water

No water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

Coliban Water

No water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

East Gippsland Water

Facing fourth year in drought and currently in a dry climate scenario.

DRY CLIMATE SCENARIO
Mitchell River system (inc. Bairnsdale, Paynesville, Lakes Entrance): Stage 2 water restrictions highly likely in mid-January, with likely increase to Stage 4 by March 2020.

Buchan and Swifts Creek: highly likely to reach water restriction trigger levels this summer. Water carting in addition to water restrictions proposed.

Gippsland Water

DRY CLIMATE SCENARIO
Briagalong: groundwater system with water restrictions possible this summer unless significant rainfall received. Water carting in addition to water restrictions proposed.

Note: only three or six-month outlooks has been provided for some systems.

Goulburn Valley Water

Stage 2 water restrictions currently in place for Euroa and Violet Town and expected to continue for the next 12 months


WORST ON RECORD
Kilmore, Broadford, Longwood, Mansfield, Merrijig, Sawmill Settlement: water restriction triggers may be reached in the next 6 – 12 months. Water carting and system transfers used where possible, and continued monitoring.

Grampians Wimmera Mallee Water

No urban water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

Lake Wartook (servicing Horsham, Natimuk) expected to experience high demand in 2019-20 with potential low storage levels by June 2020. System will be closely monitored.

Lower Murray Water

Stage 1 water restrictions currently in place across all towns.

Melbourne

Melbourne Water, City West Water, Yarra Valley Water, South East Water

Water supplies are secure for the next 12 months.

Challenges such as increasing population and drying climate which have contributed to an average annual decline in Melbourne storages of 61 billion litres over the last five years.

Storage levels are approximately 8% higher as a result of water contributed by the desalination project.

North East Water

WORST ON RECORD
Benalla, Harrietville, King, Wangaratta, Yackandandah, Myrtleford: Stage 1 or 2 water restrictions possible between February and May 2020. Water markets and groundwater proposed to supplement supply.

South Gippsland Water

WORST ON RECORD
Fish Creek: Stage 1 water restrictions possible in February 2020.

Toora, Welshpool, Port Welshpool, Port Franklin, Barry Beach: Stage 2 possible in February 2020.

Leongatha, Koonwarra: Stage 1 possible in September 2020.

Note: only three or six-month outlooks has been provided for some systems.

Wannon Water

No water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

Western Water

No water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

Westernport Water

No water restrictions are expected for the next 12 months.

Goulburn-Murray Water

Regulated Systems

Murray: 48% HRWS1 / 0% LWRS2
Campaspe: 60% HRWS / 0% LRWS
Goulburn and Loddon: 61% HRWS / 0% LRWS
Broken: 0% HRWS / 0% LRWS
Bullarook: 100% HRWS / 100% LRWS

If conditions remain dry, low flow contingency measures may be required for the 2020-21 season in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Broken systems. Opening seasonal determinations for the 2020-21 irrigation season could be very low. Reserves in these systems could be the lowest since the Millennium Drought.

Unregulated Systems

Licence holders on unregulated waterways should anticipate some level of restriction over the summer and autumn period.

Groundwater

Continued declines likely in 2019-20. Largest impacts likely in the western catchments, Shepparton Irrigation Region Groundwater Management Area and Katunga WSPA.

Licence holder access is restricted to 75% in the Newlyn zone of the Loddon Highlands WSPA and the Barnadown zone of the Lower Campaspe WSPA. Access likely to be restricted to below 100% in 2020-21.

Grampians Wimmera Mallee Water

Rural pipeline customers remain secure for the next 12 months.

Greater Melbourne Region unregulated waterway diversions

Licence holders in minor tributaries in the Maribyrnong and Yarra Basin are expected to be on bans from December 2019 to March 2020. Under dry conditions, bans could continue through to May 2020 and include all streams.

Restrictions are not expected for licence holders on the Yarra River under average conditions but may occur under dry conditions.

Southern Rural Water

Regulated Systems

Werribee/Bacchus Marsh system:
  • 100% HRW / 60% LRWS
Thomson-Macalister system:
  • 100% HRWS / 0% LRWS
  • Possible announcement for low reliability water shares on 15 December if Lake Glenmaggie does not spill.

Unregulated Systems

Bans or restrictions on unregulated waterway licence holders likely in central and east Gippsland, central Victoria including Maribyrnong and Dandenong Creek catchments and some western areas of the state from December.

Southern Rural Water

Regulated Systems

Werribee/Bacchus Marsh system:
  • 100% HRW / 60% LRWS
Thomson-Macalister system:
  • 100% HRWS / 0% LRWS
  • Possible announcement for low reliability water shares on 15 December if Lake Glenmaggie does not spill.

Unegulated Systems

Bans or restrictions on unregulated waterway licence holders likely in central and east Gippsland, central Victoria including Maribyrnong and Dandenong Creek catchments and some western areas of the state from December.

Glenelg River

Flows will maintain connectivity for migratory fish, including estuary perch and tupong.

Hattah Lakes

Will be allowed to dry over summer to reduce the number of carp. A partial refill in 2020 will support regrowth of aquatic vegetation.

Lake Kramen at Hattah Lakes is being watered for the first time in five years to recover the condition of river red gum and black box trees.

Latrobe River

Delivery to internationally importantly wetlands: Sale Common, Dowd Morass and Heart Morass.

Moorabool system

Purchased water allocation will increase environmental flows to support native fish, eels and aquatic vegetation.

Murray and Goulburn rivers

Coordinated releases are being reused multiple times along the River Murray, including at Barmah Forest, Gunbower Forest and Hattah Lakes.

Ovens system

The first trial delivery to a wetland (Mullimur wetland near Wangaratta), will complement other management work to remove carp and revegetate the site.

Snowy River

Flows will increase opportunities for canoeing and kayaking on the Snowy River.

Thomson, Macalister

Delivery of environmental flows in autumn to prompt breeding of endangered species including the Australian grayling.

Thomson system: a trial watering of Heyfield wetlands will complement community efforts to rehabilitate the wetland and support educational programs.

Wimmera system

Delivery to protect critical refuges for plants and animals, particularly in summer. Deliver to Ranch Billabong near Dimboola, for native plants and animals, in partnership with Traditional Owners. The Ranch is on land owned by the Barengi Gadjin Land Council Aboriginal Corporation.

Yarra system

Delivery for high-priority environmental flows and adjacent floodplain wetlands, Yering Backswamp and Banyule Billabong.

Melbourne Water and Victorian Environmental Water Holder will work with Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung Aboriginal Corporation to incorporate Traditional Owner cultural values into wetland watering.

1. HRWS: High Reliability Water Shares

2. LRWS: Low Reliability Water Shares

3. WSPA: Water Supply Protection Area

4. As of 19 November 2019

Climate scenarios explained
A climate scenario is a plausible and possible representation of the future climate.
Average: based on average climate experienced since 1975.
Dry: based on the driest tenth percentile (10%) of climate experienced since 1975.
Worst on record: similar to the extremely dry conditions experienced during the peak of the Millennium Drought in 2006-07. Note according to water corporation modelling, a worst on record scenario is not expected for any system over the outlook period.

Note: This map does not include all the possible environmental watering that may occur in 2019-20. For more information on other activities across Victoria, please visit www.vewh.vic.gov.au.

Click on your water corporation below to view its Annual Water Outlook:

City West Water logo Melbourne Water logo South East Water logo Western Water logo Yarra Valley Water logo

Barwon Water logo Central Highlands Water logo Coliban Water logo East Gippsland Water logo Goulburn Valley Water logo

Gippsland Water logo North East Water logo South Gippsland Water logo Wannon Water logo Westernport Water logo

Grampians Wimmera Mallee Water logo Lower Murray Water logo Southern Rural Water logo Goulburn Murray Water logo

Page last updated: 28/01/20