El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The Bureau of Meteorology released its ENSO Wrap-Up on 24 December 2019, reporting that the ENSO Outlook was still INACTIVE. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to weaken and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation remained neutral.

IOD value fell from a peak of +2.2 °C in mid-October, to the latest weekly value of +0.6 °C in late December. While the index is still above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 °C, most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicated that the positive IOD will dissipate in January. The rate of current weakening would suggest a return to neutral is likely by early January.

Positive IOD events in spring (as happened in 2019) are often associated with a more severe fire season for southeast Australia in the summer months

For ENSO Wrap-Ups visit the Bureau's Enso Wrap-Up Archive.

Climate outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology released its January to March 2020 outlook on 19 December 2019. The outlook reported that although the Christmas-New Year period was likely to be drier than average for much of the north and east, most of the country had roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.

January to March 2020 daytime temperatures were also likely to be above average across Australia, and nights were likely to be warmer than average for all areas except parts of southeast Australia.

To view current and previous seasonal climate outlooks visit the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal Climate Outlook Archive.

Forecast rainfall December 2019