Seasonal Climate Outlook - April 2012 to June 2012
On 21 March, the Bureau of Meteorology released the latest rainfall outlook for the period April to June 2012. It shows that a wetter season is more likely for northeast NSW, but a drier season is more likely for Tasmania, Victoria and southeast SA. Warmer than normal waters over the Indian Ocean is the main driver behind this outlook. The next outlook report is due on 24 April 2012.
The Bureau’s latest ENSO Wrap-Up released on 27 March, reports that the 2011–12 La Niña has ended, with key indicators returning to neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that neutral conditions will persist until at least early winter. The demise of the La Niña does not mean the risk of wet conditions over Australia has ended. While sea surface temperatures around the continent remain warmer than normal and the tropical wet season is active, there remains a risk of above average rainfall over Australia. The next ENSO update is expected on 10 April 2012.