Seasonal Climate Outlook February - April 2007
The Seasonal Outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 23 January 2007, for the February to April period, shows a moderate shift in the odds towards above-rainfall in western Victoria and along parts of the central coast (60% - 65%).
Over most of the rest of the State the chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 55-60% with chances dropping to 50-55% in the far east of the State.
The temperature outlook for February to April shows that below average maximum temperatures are favoured across Victoria, particularly in the western half of the State.
All the main indicators show that the El Niño event has begun to weaken. Since late November, near equatorial sub-surface water temperatures have cooled, and Trade Winds have been stronger than normal across the western and central Pacific. Furthermore, monthly SOI values were neutral for both November and December and central Pacific cloudiness has been near average for almost a month. This is considered to bode well for a switch to wetter conditions across Australia.
The Bureau’s next seasonal outlook is expected on 22 February 2007.