Seasonal Climate Outlook January - March 07
The Seasonal Outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 20 December 2006, for the January to March period, shows a moderate shift in the odds towards above-normal rainfall for southwest Victoria in the January - March quarter. Over the rest, and majority, of the State, the chances are between 45 and 60% for a wetter than normal March quarter.
There is a moderate shift in the odds towards below normal daytime temperatures for the March quarter in Victoria. There is a 35-40% chance of exceeding the median daily maximum temperature across the Wimmera and Western district, and 40 - 45% for the rest of the State.
The approximate Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 17 December was -4. Computer model guidance continues to suggest that the El Niño event may peak around January or February, which historically (but not consistently) has brought increased rainfall to Victoria.
However, there were signs that the El Niño event may have already started to weaken in late December, with Trade Winds in the western and central Pacific strengthening to near-normal values throughout December, sub-surface temperatures in the east-Pacific decreasing in warmth, and the Southern Oscillation Index only weakly negative for more than a month.
The next seasonal outlook is expected by 23 January 2007.