Seasonal Climate Outlook February - April 2008
The Bureau of Meteorology released its latest seasonal rainfall outlook on 24 January 2007. The outlook for the February - April quarter indicates that the chances of exceeding the three-month median rainfall are between 45 and 55% across Victoria. This means that the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being dryer.
The outlook for maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over the same period shows no strong shifts in the odds towards higher or lower than averaged temperatures.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 23 January. The La Niña event is mature and has been the main factor behind the enhanced eastern Australian rainfall since November.
Cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extend west along the equator, while near average SSTs surround northern Australia. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued to rise, with an approximate 30-day value of +18. This is marginally higher than the official December reading of +14.4.
All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the middle of autumn 2008.