Seasonal Climate Outlook March - May 2008
The Bureau of Meteorology released its latest seasonal rainfall outlook on 26 February 2008. The outlook for the March – May quarter indicates that the chances of exceeding the three-month median rainfall are between 45 to 55% across most of Victoria. The chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is slightly higher in the northwest at 55 to 60% and slightly lower in the south at 35 to 40%. This means that for most of the State the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The temperature outlook for March to May shows that the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature are 45-50% across the State. The chances of exceeding the median minimum temperature are 60% across the State.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 13 February. The La Niña event in the Pacific basin is mature, and continues to influence the climate of eastern Australia.
While weak warming has occurred in the far eastern Pacific Ocean, cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to extend across the central equatorial Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) decreased, with an approximate 30-day value of +12. This is marginally lower than the official January reading of +14; however the SOI has been on a generally rising trend since mid-2007.
All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions until at least the end of autumn 2008.