Seasonal Climate Outlook April - June 2008
The latest rainfall outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 March 2008. The outlook for the June quarter (April - June) indicates that the chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is 50 to 55% across most of Victoria. The chances are slightly higher in the northwest and far east at 55 to 60% and slightly lower in the south at 45 to 50%. This means that, for most of the state, the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The temperature outlook for April to June shows that the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature are 60 to 65% across the state. The chances of exceeding the median minimum temperature are 35 to 40% across the state.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 2 April. The La Niña event in the Pacific basin is continuing to weaken.
Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are weaker and have continued to shift towards the west Pacific. Warm sub-surface anomalies in the west have strengthened recently, while cool anomalies in the east have weakened. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains positive at +12. Trade Winds remain stronger than average across the western equatorial Pacific, but are weaker in the east. Cloudiness near the date-line has been very much below average in recent months.
All the dynamic computer models predict La Niña conditions in the central Pacific to decay to neutral over the next couple of months. However, the models do not suggest El Niño conditions will return during 2008.