Seasonal Climate Outlook December - February 2007
The Bureau of Meteorology released the latest rainfall outlook on 22 November. The outlook for the summer (December to February) quarter indicates that the chances of exceeding the three-month median rainfall are between 45 and 60% across most of Victoria. However, the probabilities drop to around 40% along the State’s southwest coastal fringe.
Averaged over the December to February quarter, the chances for above-normal maximum temperatures over Victoria are between 60 and 70%.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 14 November. A La Niña event became well established in the Pacific Basin with further intensification over late October and early November. The main characteristics were colder than average temperatures along the equator, both on and below the surface, stronger than average Trade Winds and reduced cloudiness. Computer models indicate it will persist at least until at least autumn 2008.
Ocean temperatures immediately to the north and northwest of Australia warmed during October and November, although they remained somewhat cooler than would normally be observed during a La Niña event. This would suggest an increased chance of a more typical La Niña rainfall pattern over Australia over the coming months.