Seasonal Climate Outlook January - March 2008
The Bureau of Meteorology released its latest rainfall outlook on 17 December. The outlook for the January – March quarter indicates that the chances of exceeding the three-month median rainfall are between 40 and 45% across western and central Victoria, increasing to 60% in the State’s east.
Averaged over January to March, the chances for above-normal maximum temperatures over Victoria are between 70 and 80%.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 2 January. A La Niña event is firmly established in the Pacific, strengthening over the past month and contributing to the enhanced eastern Australian rainfall since November.
Cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now extend further west along the equator, while warmer than average SSTs surround northern Australia. The December 2007 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of 14.4 is the highest monthly SOI value since April 2006.
Although some computer models suggest that the event is nearing its peak, most continue to indicate the persistence of cool Pacific Ocean temperatures, consistent with a La Niña, until at least autumn 2008.