Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2007
The latest Seasonal Outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 22 May reports no strong swings towards normal or below-normal rainfall over winter. The chances of exceeding median rainfall for the June-August period are 40-45% across most of the State rising to 45-50% in the far east.
The chances for a warmer than average winter across the State are between 55-60% across most of the State.
Although computer models show a La Nina event is likely in 2007, there has been little further development during the past month. The precursors for the development of a La Nina are still evident - in particular a large body of cool subsurface water persists in the central to eastern Pacific.
If, as computer models predict, the Pacific cools to such an extent that a La Niña forms during the coming months, subsequent climate outlooks are likely to indicate increased chances of above average rainfall over the eastern half Australia.
The SOI for May was -2.0 compared with -3.0 in April.
The Bureau’s next seasonal outlook is due to be released on 26 June 2007.