Seasonal Climate Outlook May - July 2008
The latest rainfall outlook was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 23 April 2008. The outlook for the May - July period indicates that the chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is 45 to 50% across most of Victoria, with probabilities slightly higher in the south at 55 to 60%. This means that, for most of the state, the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The temperature outlook for May-July shows that the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature are 45 to 50% across the state. The chances of exceeding the median minimum temperature are 50 to 55% across the state.
The Bureau issued the latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 30 April. The La Niña event in the Pacific Basin has weakened to neutral conditions, and computer models are indicating that neutral conditions are expected to persist over the next two seasons (winter and spring). The SOI is on a downward trend but remains positive at +5.