Seasonal Climate Outlook December 2008 - February 2009
The rainfall outlook for the period December to February was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 26 November 2008.
The outlook for the period December to February shows no strong bias towards either wetter or drier conditions. The outlook indicates that the chances of exceeding the median rainfall across Victoria are between 40 and 45% in the south, and between 45% and 50% in the north and east. This means that the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The Bureau’s latest ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 19 November 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail in the Pacific basin. Ocean temperatures are close to their long-term average across the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. Subsurface waters are slightly cooler than normal across most of the basin, suggesting that minor cooling is the only likely change in surface ocean temperatures over the coming weeks.
Given current conditions, recent trends and climate model forecasts, neutral conditions are expected to remain through the end of 2008 and the southern summer - there is now very little potential for El Niño or La Niña conditions to develop. The Indian Ocean Dipole is now neutral and, as is usual for this time of year, is expected to remain neutral for the coming months.