Seasonal Climate Outlook November - January 2008
The rainfall outlook for the period November to January was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 28 October 2008.
The outlook shows no shift in the odds favouring either wetter or drier than normal conditions. The outlook indicates that the chances of exceeding the median rainfall across Victoria are between 45 and 55%, meaning the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 29 October 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail in the Pacific basin, with only minor fluctuations in ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean in the past three weeks. Surface temperatures are now close to their long-term average across the basin. Given current conditions, trends over the past few months and climate model forecasts, neutral conditions are likely to remain until the end of the year and throughout the southern summer. There is now little potential for El Niño or La Niña conditions to develop. The Indian Ocean Dipole is now neutral and is expected to remain neutral for the coming few months.