Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2008
The rainfall outlook for the October–December period was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 25 September 2008.
The outlook shows a shift towards drier conditions for southern Victoria, where the chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 25 and 40%. The chances of exceeding the median rainfall in northern Victoria remain between 40 and 50%, meaning the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 24 September 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific, with further slight cooling experienced over the past 3 weeks. There is now little potential for an El Niño event in 2008, and a switch to La Niña conditions is also unlikely. This is supported by climate model forecasts that show neutral conditions should persist until the end of the year. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is following its normal cycle of decay in the spring and is expected to decline further and remain neutral over the coming months by most models.