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Monitoring & Reporting > Monthly Water Report > Archived Reports > Monthly Water Report August 2008 > Seasonal Climate Outlook
Seasonal Climate Outlook September - November 2008
The rainfall outlook for the September – November period was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 26 August 2008.
The outlook indicates that the chances of a wetter than normal spring are between 40 and 50% across Victoria, meaning the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 14 August 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific, and computer models indicate that these neutral conditions are likely to continue throughout 2008. While winter is a period of relatively high predictability, which means that the persistence of neutral conditions is the most likely scenario, the Pacific Ocean will nevertheless continue to be closely monitored for any signs of El Nino growth.
The Indian Ocean is currently in a weak positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) but this is forecast to dissipate over the coming months. As the IOD is known to increase the chance of below average winter-spring rainfall in southeast Australia, it will also continue to be closely monitored.
In this section
The outlook indicates that the chances of a wetter than normal spring are between 40 and 50% across Victoria, meaning the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 14 August 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific, and computer models indicate that these neutral conditions are likely to continue throughout 2008. While winter is a period of relatively high predictability, which means that the persistence of neutral conditions is the most likely scenario, the Pacific Ocean will nevertheless continue to be closely monitored for any signs of El Nino growth.
The Indian Ocean is currently in a weak positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) but this is forecast to dissipate over the coming months. As the IOD is known to increase the chance of below average winter-spring rainfall in southeast Australia, it will also continue to be closely monitored.