Seasonal Climate Outlook - October to December 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for October to December on 23 September. The outlook for most of Victoria is neutral with above average rainfall being equally likely as below average rainfall, however the odds favour above average rainfall for parts of northern Victoria.
This is consistent with the indicators outlined in the Bureau’s latest ENSO Wrap-Up, issued on 15 September. The Bureau reports that the La Niña event has strengthened in the Pacific Ocean. The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is now more than a degree cooler than the long-term mean, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to rise, trade winds are at their strongest since 1998 and cloudiness over the central tropical Pacific remains suppressed.
Indicators also show the presence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.
The combination of these types of event are often associated with above average rainfall over south-eastern Australia in spring. Experimental forecasts by the Bureau’s POAMA model also favour a wetter spring.