Seasonal Climate Outlook - September to November 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for September to November on 24 August. The outlook for most of south-east Australia is neutral, with above average rainfall being equally likely as below average rainfall. However, the indicated odds favour drier conditions for parts of southern Victoria.
However, given the fact that various indicators show the presence of both a La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean, and a negative Indian Ocean dipole event, and that both of these types of event are often associated with above average rainfall over south-eastern Australia in spring, a wetter spring is in fact more likely (see the latest ENSO Wrap-Up). This is reflected in the experimental forecasts by the Bureau's POAMA model.
International computer models forecast further cooling in the central Pacific Ocean, suggesting the La Niña period should persist until at least the end of the year. Similarly, the warmer than average temperatures off the north-west coast of Australia associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event are forecast to persist until the end of the year.