Seasonal Climate Outlook - August - October 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for August to October on 22 July. The outlook for most of south-east Australia is neutral, with above average rainfall being equally likely as below average rainfall. However, the odds favour drier conditions for parts of Victoria’s southern coast.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 21 July. The Bureau reports that major indicators are consistent with a developing La Niña event.
Tropical Pacific ocean temperatures have cooled over the past fortnight and other major indicators are also at or exceeding La Niña thresholds. The majority of international computer models continue to forecast a continuation of current trends, with a significant likelihood of further ocean cooling beyond La Niña thresholds before the end of the southern winter.
The combination of current trends and model outlooks suggests that 2010 is likely to be considered a La Niña year. La Niña events are typically, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of eastern and northern Australia.