Seasonal Climate Outlook - June - August 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for June to August on 25 May. The outlook predicts a drier than median season for most of Victoria, particularly the south-west.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 26 May 2010. The Bureau reports that the 2009/10 El Niño event has concluded, as all major indicators are at levels considered neutral (indicating neither El Niño nor La Niña).
The Bureau reports that historically, 35~40% of El Niño events have been followed by a La Niña event in the same year. Current conditions below the surface in the Pacific Ocean show large volumes of cooler than normal water, suggesting further cooling could occur.
Most climate models are predicting further cooling of sea surface temperatures over the coming months, with the possibility of La Niña conditions developing later in the year. No climate models are predicting a return to El Niño conditions. La Niña events usually result in above average rainfall over much of Australia. However, the last La Niña event in 1998/99 did not have a significant impact on rainfall over most of Victoria. Also, the Bureau warns that predicting transitional periods of El Niño Southern Oscillation is more difficult than predicting the continuation or decline of El Niño or La Niña events.