Seasonal Climate Outlook - May - July 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for May to July on 22 April. The outlook predicts a drier than median season for south-western Victoria, while the chance of exceeding median rainfall in northern Victoria is neutral.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 28 April 2010. The Bureau reports continued decline of the 2009/10 El Niño event. While temperatures in the western Pacific remain warm, the majority of ENSO indicators have dropped below El Niño thresholds. Cooling of the Pacific since December has resulted in a return of normal conditions for tropical cloudiness and the trade winds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained positive since the second week of April.
The cooling is in line with climate model predictions that suggest ocean temperatures will continue to cool over the coming months. Most models predict cooler than normal Pacific Ocean conditions emerging during the southern winter, however, the Bureau warns that model predictions through autumn are less accurate than during other times of the year.