Seasonal Climate Outlook - April - June 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for April to June on 23 March. The outlook reports a neutral chance for median rainfall across most of Victoria, which means that the chance of receiving above average rainfall is the same as the chance of below average rainfall. However, a drier than median season is predicted for north-western Victoria.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 31 March 2010. The Bureau reports continuing El Niño conditions, however, Pacific Ocean temperatures are showing signs of cooling. The cooling is in line with expectations that tropical ocean temperatures will ease towards more average conditions in coming months. Computer models suggest ocean temperatures are likely return to neutral levels during the southern autumn, therefore causing a breakdown of El Niño conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, and is forecast to remain so through autumn. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased rainfall across parts of central and southern Australia.