Seasonal Climate Outlook - February - April 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for February to April on 19 January. The outlook reports a neutral chance overall for total rainfall across southeast Australia being wetter or drier than an average season. For most of central and western Victoria, the odds of exceeding the median rainfall during the period February to April are between 55 and 60%. For parts of eastern and northern Victoria, the chance is between 45 and 55%.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 20 January 2010. The Bureau continues to report signs typical of a mature El Niño event. Cloudiness and rainfall near the equator remain above average, and central Pacific Ocean temperatures are still above El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen to neutral values in the past fortnight. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures may gradually ease towards more average conditions in the coming months, but are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until the southern autumn.
El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. However, the Bureau reports that the influence of El Niño events on Australian rainfall typically declines after mid to late summer.