Seasonal Climate Outlook August - October 2008
The rainfall outlook for the August – October period was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 25 July 2008.
The outlook indicates that the chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is 40 to 50% across most of Victoria, meaning the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier. Probabilities of a wet season are slightly higher in the south and east of Victoria at 50 to 55% and slightly lower in the far northwest at 35 to 40%.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 23 July 2008) indicates that neutral conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific. Computer models indicate that neutral conditions are likely to continue throughout 2008. Most models show some warming in the coming season, but only a minority predict an El Nino developing.
As winter is a period of relatively high predictability, the persistence of neutral conditions is considered the most likely scenario in the coming months. However, there is still a small chance of an El Nino in 2008 and the Pacific will continue to be closely monitored for signs.