Seasonal Climate Outlook - January - March 2010
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for January to March on 21 December. The outlook reports that the odds are between 55 and 65% for above average rainfall from January to March across most of Victoria. However, the Bureau has advised caution as the outlooks produced at this time of year are not as accurate as for other seasons.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 23 December. The Bureau reports that Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels typical of a mature El Niño. Central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are now at their warmest level since the El Niño of 1997-98, exceeding temperatures observed in both the 2002-03 and 2006-07 events. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen slightly, and remains at levels typical of an El Niño event.
Leading climate models continue to suggest tropical ocean temperatures are approaching their peak, and will remain above El Niño thresholds through the southern summer before starting to cool.
El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. However, the Bureau reports that the influence of El Niño events on Australian rainfall typically declines after mid to late summer.