Seasonal Climate Outlook November - January 2009
The Bureau of Meteorology released its rainfall outlook for November to January on 23 October. The outlook reports that the odds of the coming season being wetter than normal are the same as the chance of it being drier.
The Bureau issued its latest ENSO Wrap-Up on 28 October 2009. The Bureau continues to report the likelihood of an El Niño event during 2009, extending into 2010. Temperatures in the central Pacific have warmed during the past fortnight due to weakening Trade winds, and now exceed levels typical of an El Niño event. In addition, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now reflecting its lowest value since 2007. Negative SOI values are associated with El Niño events. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), has risen over the past fortnight, but remains neutral. The IOD is expected to remain neutral over the coming months. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased rainfall across parts of central and southern Australia.