Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2009
The Bureau of Meteorology released the rainfall outlook for the period June to August on 26 May 2009.
The outlook shows there is a slight shift in the odds favouring drier than normal conditions for the southwest coast of Victoria. The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 40% and 45% across most of the state, with between 45% and 55% in East Gippsland and between 35% and 40% along the southwest coast.
The Bureau issued the ENSO Wrap-Up on 21 May 2009. Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. All international climate modes predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean SST, with half of the models forecasting the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has become increasingly positive over the last month. It is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a sustained trend, but late autumn and winter is the typical development period for an IOD event.