Seasonal Climate Outlook May - July 2009
The Bureau of Meteorology released the rainfall outlook for the period May to July on 24 April 2009.
The outlook shows a slight shift in the odds favouring wetter than normal conditions for Victoria. The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 45% and 55% in east Gippsland and northeast Victoria and between 40% and 45% across the rest of the state.
The Bureau’s latest ENSO Wrap-Up was issued on 15 April 2009. Climate patterns across the equatorial Pacific now display few La Niña signals, with almost all indicators within their neutral range. Both the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and sub-surface has warmed, resulting in near normal ocean surface temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific.
Most models predict further warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) until at least mid-winter, remaining in the ENSO-neutral range. A small number of models are predicting the development of El Niño conditions during the southern winter or spring, while none suggests a return to La Niña conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, as is typical for this time of year. It will be monitored through autumn for any signs of an emerging event.