Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2008
The rainfall outlook for the July to September period was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 26 June 2008. The outlook indicates that the chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is 30% to 40% across most of Victoria. This shows a shift in the odds favouring drier than average conditions. Probabilities of a wet season are slightly higher in the southeast of Victoria at 40% to 50%, where the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier.
The ENSO Wrap-Up (issued on 18 June 2008) indicates a consolidation of the neutral ENSO pattern across the equatorial Pacific. The majority of computer models show the neutral pattern continuing. However, ENSO events can evolve quite rapidly at this time of year and the Pacific will continue to be closely monitored for signs of an evolving El Nino. Several models are predicting a positive mode of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which means that temperatures off the north-west coast of Australia may be cooler than average. This often hinders the formation of northwest cloud bands which are an important source of winter/spring rainfall in southeast Australia.