Seasonal Climate Outlook June - August 2008
The rainfall outlook for the June – August period was released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 27 May 2008. This outlook indicates that the chance of exceeding the three-month median rainfall is 50 to 55% across most of Victoria. Probabilities of a wet season are slightly higher in the south of Victoria at 55 to 60%. This means that, for most of the state, the chances of being wetter than normal are about the same as the chances of being drier
The temperature outlook for June – August shows that the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature are 55 to 60% across the state. The chances of exceeding the median minimum temperature are 50 to 55% across the state.
The Bureau issued the ENSO Wrap-Up on 21 May. The climate patterns in the Pacific remain generally neutral. The SOI is on a downward trend, and was close to zero for the 30 days to 21 May. Computer models show Pacific temperatures continuing to gradually increase over the next two seasons, but remaining near-average (i.e. neutral conditions), with a low likelihood of either a stronger warming to El Nino levels or a re-intensification of La Nina conditions during 2008.